Putin's "Real Aim" to Invade Ukraine ... - Esquire 2022/02/06 - This poses a major threat to Russia. Putin says. "If Ukraine joins NATO, we will be able to launch a missile attack on Moscow in five minutes.

 Invasion of Ukraine

Putin's plans

Where is the "real aim"?

The possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine is increasing. On January 23, the U.S. State Department ordered the evacuation of some U.S. Embassy staff in Ukraine and their families. Why does Putin want to invade Ukraine? And what exactly does he want? This is a reprint of an article by Yukihaku Kitano, an international relations analyst, that appeared in Diamond Online on January 29, 2022.

 By Yukihaku Kitano, International Relations Analyst

2022/02/06

Putin on the Ukraine situation.

Reasons for the resentment

It was last November when it was reported that "about 100,000 Russian troops were massing on the Ukrainian border. The confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, involving the United States and NATO, seems to have occurred "out of the blue. However, this issue has actually been going on for more than 30 years.

In 1945, after the end of World War II, the Cold War between the U.S. and the Soviet Union divided the world into the U.S. capitalist camp and the Soviet communist camp. Germany, which became the border between the two camps, was divided into West Germany, the U.S. camp, and East Germany, the Soviet camp.

However, the atmosphere changed when Gorbachev came to power in 1985.

Realizing the limits of the Soviet system, he moved quickly to liberalize the economy, politics, and speech, and the "winds of freedom" began to blow in the Soviet Union and its satellite countries in Eastern Europe.

In 1989, the "Berlin Wall," which had separated East and West Germany, fell. This was followed by the "Democratic Revolution in Eastern Europe," which the Soviet Union tacitly approved. Then, in 1990, there was a growing momentum to "reunify East and West Germany.

Since East Germany was in the Soviet sphere of influence at the time, the U.S. asked Gorbachev if he would allow the unification of East and West Germany. Gorbachev responded by offering one condition for permission.

thatcher and gorbachev

Mikhail Gorbachev on an official visit to London on April 7, 1989, the year of the "fall of the Berlin Wall. Behind him is then British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher.

GEORGES DE KEERLEGETTY IMAGES

The idea is "not to expand NATO eastward beyond a united Germany.

And the U.S. government readily agreed. Then, in December 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed, ending the Cold War. When the new era of Russia began, the U.S. easily reneged on its promise to Gorbachev.

In 1999, the Eastern European countries of the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland joined NATO, three countries that had once been in Russia's (Soviet Union's) sphere of influence. Russia was greatly shocked.

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Then in 2004, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, and Slovenia, also in Eastern Europe, joined NATO. Also that year, the Baltic states of Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia joined. The Baltic states were once part of the Soviet Union.

Russians consider "Soviet Union = Enlarged Russia.

Therefore, the Baltic states' joining of NATO was perceived as "the participation of a region that was once part of their own country in an anti-Russian military alliance. Putin, who was already president at the time, has hated the United States ever since then for breaking its promise.

At the end of the Cold War, there were 16 NATO members in the anti-Soviet military alliance. Now it has expanded to 30. Moreover, the U.S. has no intention of stopping the expansion, and is now trying to get Russia's neighbor to the west, the former Soviet republic of Ukraine, and its neighbor to the southwest, Georgia, also a former Soviet republic, to join NATO (although there is no talk of "making them members right now").

If this were to happen, there would no longer be a "buffer zone" between Russia and NATO. This would be a major threat to Russia.

Putin says.

"If Ukraine joins NATO, we will be able to launch a missile attack on Moscow in five minutes. In this light, Putin has a point.

Big forces on the Ukrainian border.

Why gather "now"?

However, it is difficult to understand why they are massing large forces now. The author believes that "it has something to do with the intensifying war of hegemony between the U.S. and China.

What does that mean? Currently, the possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is being discussed.

Putin said, "The U.S. will want to focus its resources on fighting China. He probably thought, "The U.S. will not be able to get its hands on Ukraine. Therefore, he said, "Now is the time to extract concessions from the U.S.". The "concession" referred to here is "a legal guarantee that Ukraine will not join NATO.

ukrainian troops at international peacekeeping and security center

Amid growing international tensions over an imminent Russian military invasion, on January 28, 2022, the Ukrainian Armed Forces conducted an exercise in Starych, Lviv, accompanied by a demonstration of the state-of-the-art NLAW anti-tank guided missile (ATGM), which the British government announced on January 17 it would provide as part of its support for the Ukrainian military.

GAELLE GIRBESGETTY IMAGES

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If you accept this demand, we will not invade Ukraine, but if you don't, we will invade you! The United States will not be able to fight both Russia and China."

An online summit meeting between Biden and Putin took place last December 8. In addition, U.S.-Russia and NATO-Russia talks were held from January 10-13 of this year. However, no agreement has been reached. In other words, neither the U.S. nor NATO made a "commitment to non-expansion of NATO. The reason is that "whether or not to join NATO is a matter for Ukraine itself to decide.

The invasion of Ukraine

Russia's Aim

Putin has not achieved his goal of "obtaining legal guarantees that Ukraine will not join NATO. As a result, the possibility of a Russian "invasion of Ukraine" is now increasing. If invaded, what would Russia's goal be? To understand this, we should look back at the recent situation in Ukraine.

In February 2014, a revolution took place in Ukraine, toppling the pro-Russian Yanukovych government and giving birth to a new pro-Western government. Then the next month, March 2014, Russia took Crimea from Ukraine. Then, in April 2014, Lugansk and Donetsk Oblasts in eastern Ukraine, which have a large Russian population, declared independence. The new Ukrainian government naturally refused to recognize independence, and civil war broke out.

In February 2015, the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany, and France reached the Minsk 2 Ceasefire Agreement. Since then, Lugansk and Donetsk have been in a "de facto independent state".

However, unlike Crimea, which was annexed by Russia, there is still a possibility that Ukraine will move to retake Lugansk and Donetsk. This would be natural for the Ukrainian government, since Lugansk and Donetsk are its own territory.

If Russian troops invade Ukraine, their goal would be "to achieve full independence of Lugansk and Donetsk from Ukraine. And, in effect, they would become subject to Russia.

As a matter of fact, Russia has done something similar in the past.

In August 2008, the Russo-Georgian War broke out. The victorious Russians then recognized as states Apkhazia and South Ossetia, which were seeking independence from Georgia.

This time, too, the Russians may win the battle against the Ukrainian army and subsequently recognize Lugansk and Donetsk as states. Then, at the "request of both countries," Russian troops would be stationed there, and with Lugansk and Donetsk as frontline bases, Russia would maintain constant tension with Ukraine.

What is Russia's objective?

NATO has a "collective defense obligation". If Ukraine becomes a NATO member and engages in combat with Russia, the other members will automatically enter a state of war with Russia. But no European country would want to go to war with Russia.

In other words, Russia could use Lugansk and Donetsk to maintain tensions with Ukraine and prevent Ukraine from joining NATO.

An invasion of Ukraine would

Russian Economy Takes a Heavy Hit

Meanwhile, how is the U.S. moving? Neither U.S. nor NATO forces intend to fight Russia alongside Ukrainian forces. The reason is that Ukraine is not a NATO member.

In other words, it is not subject to "collective self-defense. However, the U.S. has already sent large quantities of arms and ammunition to Ukraine.

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Biden then said that if Russia invades Ukraine, he will "impose sanctions that we have not seen yet," and that "Russian banks will not be able to trade dollars.

Will these threats have any effect? As a matter of fact, the economic sanctions imposed by the U.S., Europe, and Japan after the annexation of Crimea were quite effective.

Russia's economy continued to grow at an average annual rate of 7% from 2000 to 2008. However, from 2014, when Crimea was annexed, to 2020, the growth rate dropped to an average of 0.38% per year due to the sanctions.

If Putin decides to invade Ukraine, stronger economic sanctions would be imposed, which would devastate the Russian economy.

As a result of the invasion, Ukraine would lose part of its territory. But Russia would be isolated globally, and its economy could collapse. It is truly "lose-lose.

I hope Putin does not make a foolish decision.

Diamond Inc.

*This article was originally published on January 29, 2021.